BTC Price Prediction: Bullish Breakout Likely as Institutional Demand Meets Technical Support

#BTC

• Technical Strength: Price above key moving averages with Bollinger Band squeeze suggesting volatility expansion
• Institutional Demand: BlackRock's BTC ETF outperforming traditional assets signals shifting capital flows
• Political Catalysts: US policy developments reducing regulatory uncertainty for crypto adoption

BTC Price Prediction

BTC Technical Analysis: Bullish Signals Emerge

BTC is currently trading at 108,133 USDT, above its 20-day moving average of 105,856, suggesting bullish momentum. The MACD indicator shows a bearish crossover with the signal line above the MACD line, but the price holding above the middle Bollinger Band (105,856) indicates potential support. Emma, BTCC financial analyst, notes: 'While the MACD shows short-term weakness, the price holding key levels and upper Bollinger Band at 110,085 could signal upward potential if resistance breaks.'

Institutional Adoption and Political Support Fuel BTC Optimism

Positive developments including US housing policy embracing Bitcoin-backed loans and Trump's endorsement of BTC as a job creator are creating favorable sentiment. 'The combination of institutional ETF inflows and political validation could override short-term technical weakness,' says Emma. BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF outperforming traditional assets highlights growing institutional confidence, though miner revenue pressures may cause volatility.

Factors Influencing BTC’s Price

US Housing Policy Opens Doors for Bitcoin-Backed Home Loans

The US Federal Housing Finance Agency's proposed regulation marks a watershed moment for cryptocurrency adoption. By allowing Bitcoin holdings to qualify as collateral for mortgage applications, the FHFA effectively bridges decentralized finance with traditional home lending. Cathie Wood of ARK Invest notes this legitimizes crypto assets in ways that could accelerate institutional acceptance.

Under the new framework, investors holding $107,760 in Bitcoin could secure real estate financing without liquidating positions—a structural shift that preserves crypto exposure while unlocking property markets. The policy reflects growing regulatory comfort with digital assets as balance sheet components rather than speculative instruments.

Market observers anticipate ripple effects across lending practices if implemented. Traditional banks may face pressure to develop crypto-collateralized products, while exchanges could see increased demand for custody solutions tailored to mortgage underwriters. The move follows Bitcoin's 2024 resurgence as both a risk asset and inflation hedge.

Global Developments Lift Cryptocurrency Markets

Cryptocurrency markets are showing resilience as favorable economic conditions and potential interest rate cuts bolster investor sentiment. The recent U.S.-China agreement has alleviated fears of global polarization, paving the way for renewed growth.

Bitcoin (BTC) remains a focal point, with analysts like Ali Martinez noting critical technical patterns suggesting an impending market transition. Geopolitical tensions and tariff wars had previously stifled progress, but diplomatic breakthroughs are now shifting the narrative.

July could mark a turning point for digital assets as contentious policies like digital taxes recede. The market's ability to weather earlier volatility underscores its maturation amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

Trump's Trade Stance Bolsters Bitcoin as EU-US Tariff Talks Simmer

Bitcoin holds firm above $107,000 following former President Trump's recent trade policy declarations. The cryptocurrency's resilience comes amid muted European response to US tariff proposals, suggesting potential for bilateral agreement. Market observers note BTC's consolidation above $106,300 could establish a new support level for future gains.

Altcoins continue their lackluster performance through mid-year, failing to capitalize on earlier macroeconomic developments. The tariff narrative follows its predicted trajectory - with Q1 market damage, Q2 negotiations, and anticipated Q3 recovery now materializing. A breakout above $108,300 may signal BTC's next leg upward toward record highs.

Trump Praises Bitcoin as Job Creator and Dollar Stabilizer

Former President Donald Trump has reaffirmed his support for Bitcoin, describing it as "amazing" and emphasizing its role in creating American jobs. Speaking at a White House conference, Trump positioned Bitcoin not just as a digital currency but as a transformative industry that bolsters the U.S. economy.

Trump revealed his long-standing interest in cryptocurrency, predating his presidential campaign, though he noted minimal personal investment during his tenure. Bitcoin's price trajectory during his administration—climbing from $70,000 in November to a record $112,000 in May—underscored his bullish stance. The asset's resilience during market volatility, particularly amid trade policy turbulence, further cemented its reputation as a store of value.

Notably, Trump highlighted Bitcoin's macroeconomic impact, suggesting it alleviates pressure on the U.S. dollar. His remarks signal growing political recognition of cryptocurrency's structural role in global finance.

Top US Financial Advisor Advocates for Increased Bitcoin Allocation in Portfolios

Ric Edelman, a leading US financial advisor and head of the Digital Asset Council of Financial Advisors, has shifted his stance on Bitcoin, now recommending portfolios allocate between 10% to 40% to cryptocurrencies. This marks a significant departure from his previous conservative recommendation of just 1% exposure four years ago.

Edelman's revised position comes as Bitcoin solidifies its status as a mainstream asset class. In a CNBC interview, he highlighted that key uncertainties around regulatory acceptance and technological obsolescence have largely been resolved. The asset's maturation and underperformance of traditional investment models were cited as primary drivers for the aggressive new allocation range.

The endorsement represents growing institutional confidence in Bitcoin's long-term viability. Edelman's influence as a top advisor could prompt broader adoption of crypto allocations in traditional portfolio management strategies.

Bitcoin Miners Grapple with Revenue Squeeze as Fees and Prices Tumble

Bitcoin miners are facing their leanest period in two months, with daily revenues crashing to $34 million on June 22—levels last seen in April and among the worst annual performances. The dual pressures of collapsing transaction fees and depressed BTC prices have created a perfect storm for an industry still reeling from April's halving.

Network data reveals a 3.5% hashrate decline since mid-June, the sharpest drop in nearly a year. Yet despite these headwinds, mass miner capitulation remains conspicuously absent. CryptoQuant reports daily outflows from mining wallets have held steady at 6,000 BTC, a far cry from February's 23,000 BTC exodus.

The industry's old guard appears equally unmoved. Wallets tied to Satoshi-era miners show no signs of distress selling, suggesting veterans are weathering the storm through accumulated reserves or strategic patience.

Bitcoin Navigates Key Support Levels in Transitional Phase

Bitcoin's price action is under scrutiny as it tests critical support levels, with market analyst Rekt Capital suggesting a potential transitional phase. The cryptocurrency may experience short-term downward deviations before establishing a new upward trajectory. Reclaiming the $104,400 support level is pivotal—a threshold maintained for nearly seven weeks.

A successful hold above $104,400 could pave the way for Bitcoin to convert the $109,000 resistance into support, a key milestone for bullish momentum. Market conditions remain volatile, but institutional interest and technical resilience hint at underlying strength.

War Panic Selling in Crypto Markets Often Backfires, Data Shows

Geopolitical turmoil routinely triggers knee-jerk selloffs in cryptocurrency markets, but historical patterns suggest these reactions frequently miss the mark. Blockchain analytics firm Santiment notes that fear-driven responses to conflict headlines typically create prime accumulation opportunities for large investors, while retail traders exit at inopportune moments.

The recent U.S.-Iran tensions followed this familiar script. As airstrikes and missile exchanges escalated Middle East tensions last week, Bitcoin initially dipped before rebounding sharply to $108,000 by June 25. This mirrors February 2022's Russia-Ukraine conflict and October 2024's Israel-Palestine clashes, where short-lived selloffs preceded swift recoveries.

Santiment's sentiment analysis reveals a telling pattern: social media mentions of "war" and "conflict" spike alongside bearish Bitcoin predictions precisely before rallies. The firm observed a 10% BTC rebound following peak fear indicators during the recent crisis.

Bitcoin Price Stagnates Despite Ongoing Institutional Purchases

Bitcoin's price remains stagnant at $107,406 in 2025, defying expectations despite substantial institutional inflows. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have absorbed approximately 100,000 BTC year-to-date, while corporate treasuries like Strategy have aggressively expanded holdings—adding 64,000 BTC to reach 592,000 BTC collectively.

The apparent disconnect between capital inflows and price action reveals market complexities. While ETF demand appears robust, analysts note these purchases represent diverse investor classes—from family offices to high-net-worth individuals—rather than concentrated institutional bets. Meanwhile, profit-taking and surplus supply may be counterbalancing accumulation pressures.

Long-term fundamentals remain bullish as treasury holdings surpass 823,000 BTC, creating structural supply constraints. Yet the market appears to be digesting these flows methodically rather than reacting impulsively—a sign of maturation that could set the stage for more sustainable rallies ahead.

Bitcoin ETFs Gain Traction as Institutional Interest Surges

Global financial markets are witnessing a seismic shift as Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) attract unprecedented institutional demand. S&P Global's latest report highlights BlackRock's IBIT fund as a market leader, with crypto-based ETFs collectively driving diversification in traditional investment portfolios.

The sector's expansion bridges the gap between conventional finance and digital assets, offering regulated exposure to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Analysts observe this trend accelerating mainstream adoption while prompting regulators worldwide to refine their frameworks for crypto financial products.

BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Outperforms S&P 500 Fund in Fee Revenue

BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, has eclipsed the firm’s flagship S&P 500 fund (IVV) in annual trading fee revenue, generating $186 million compared to IVV’s $183 million. The milestone underscores accelerating institutional demand for regulated crypto exposure.

Launched in early 2024, IBIT shattered ETF inflow records with $75 billion in assets under management. The product maintained steady investor interest even during May’s subdued Bitcoin price action, cementing its position as a preferred institutional gateway.

Analyst Nate Geraci noted IBIT’s volatility now mirrors traditional equity ETFs, signaling maturation. The fund’s 25 basis-point fee structure on its $75 billion AUM contrasts with IVV’s 3bps charge across $609 billion.

How High Will BTC Price Go?

Emma projects a potential rally to 115,000-120,000 USDT if BTC sustains above 110,085 (upper Bollinger Band), with key factors being:

Institutional inflows (ETFs adding ~$200M daily) and political tailwinds may accelerate momentum once technical resistance breaks.